Three secrets to a Jaguars upset over the Chiefs: Trevor Lawrence exploits suspicious secondary, defense stands high

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The first game of the NFL's divisional round weekend break in between the fourth-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars and the AFC's leading overall seed, the Kansas City Chiefs, is an enjoyable association of assumptions. Making the divisional round has actually become a right of flow f

 this period. The 27-year-old is looking for to end up being the first quarterback with five championship game video game appearances before turning 30. Mahomes is 5-0 in the initial 2 rounds of the playoffs in his job with the most prolific numbers in the preliminaries considering that the 1970 AFL/NFL merging. Mahomes by the numbers in initial 2 rounds all timeW-L5-0Comp Pct71% Pass YPG327.2TD-INT14-1Passer Rating119.1 * All finest by any kind of QB since 1970 AFL/NFL merging min. 5 beginnings) Meanwhile, the Jaguars ended up being just the third group to win a championship game after having the initial general draft pick, joining the 1978 Houston Oilers and the 1991 Dallas Cowboys. The Jaguars carried on many thanks to the third-largest return in playoff history, a 27-point rally in their 31-30 wild card round win against the Los Angeles Chargers. These 2 teams, much like all of the matches from Super Wild Card Weekend, have played each other currently this period with the Chiefs winning 27-17 at Arrowhead in Week 10. Nevertheless, the Jaguars installed a decent battle, outscoring Kansas City 17-7 after dropping behind 20-0. Mahomes threw for 331 yards, 4 touchdowns and an interception on 26 of 35 passing with tight end Travis Kelce hauling in 6 of his completions for 81 yards and a goal. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence played turnover-free football as he threw for 259 lawns and a couple touchdowns on 29 of 40 passing away. Pass receiver Christian Kirk-- Jacksonville's big freelance signing last offseason with a four-year, $72 million contract-- had arguably his best video game as a Jaguar with a season-high nine catches, 105 receiving yards and a season-high two obtaining touchdowns. Despite shedding by 10, the Jaguars had a considerable benefit in the turnover department, committing none while the Chiefs had three, a Mahomes interception, a shed fumble by newbie running back Isiah Pacheco and a lost fumble on a kickoff , given that their Week 10 regular-season competition, Lawrence has essentially matched Mahomes' degree of play across their last 8 video games. Lawrence, Mahomes statistics since Week 11, consisting of playoffs
Trevor LawrencePatrick MahomesW-L7-17-1Comp Pct66% 67% Pass Yards/Att7.38.2 TD-INT16-616-5Passer Rating97.9103.9 Below are 3 points Lawrence and the Jaguars will require to do in order to manage a significant distress to reach their initial AFC Championship Game because the 2017 season: 1. Stress Patrick Mahomes without blitzing A year back, Mahomes was the least-blitzed quarterback in football as he was under extra pressure on 11.3% of his dropbacks. It's been even more of the same in 2022 as he has actually been blitzed on 21.8% of his dropbacks, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. Standing rub and going down the huge bulk of their protectors into pass insurance coverage is the biggest key to a victory. His three losses this season represent three of his four highest possible stress rates without being blitzed, indicating defenses reached him exclusively utilizing their front 4 protective electrician. Patrick Mahomes' greatest pressure price without strike in '22WeekOpponentUnder Pressure Pct6vs. Bills53% * 13at Bengals36% * 9vs. Titans35% 3at Colts32% * 10vs. Jaguars32% 1 at Cardinals32% * Lost gameMahomes is still going to make plays, despite the situation. He's Patrick Mahomes, however he was 22nd in passer ranking 57.6) and tossed even more interceptions 6) than goals 5) when pressured without a strike this season. Only New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, that experienced an existential crisis with Matt Patricia calling plays, had a lot more interceptions 7) in those Jaguars strike at a league-average rate of 25.3% of the moment, 16th out of the NFL's 32 teams. Despite not being an overly hostile blitz group, Jacksonville placed third in the entire organization this normal period in quarterback press percent 37.7%) behind just two groups with 12 or even more wins: the 14-3 Philadelphia Eagles 38.4%) and the 12-5 Dallas Cowboys 43.3%). They rate fifth in the NFL in pressure rate when not blitzing this season 33%), and they had the ability to press Mahomes on 32% of his dropbacks when they really did not strike in Week 10, selecting him off because circumstance. That's something to improve this the cost in that department is outdoors linebacker Josh Allen, whose 68 stress in the routine period were tied with two Pro Bowlers this period-- Eagles linebacker Haason Reddick and Carolina Panthers defensive end Brian Burns. Allen and the capacity of the Jaguars' front seven to ruffle Mahomes without sending added rushers will likely establish the outcome of this video game. 2. Slow down Travis Kelce Across the Chiefs' three losses this period, All-Pro limited end Travis Kelce captured 16 masquerade 222 receiving lawns and one touchdown. That's approximately 5.3 receptions per game and 74 getting yards. Kelce is a nightmare matchup for all teams, but specifically the Jaguars. He led all tight ends in catches 110 ), getting yards 1, 338) and obtaining touchdowns 12) this period. Meanwhile, the Jaguars allowed the third-most getting backyards 1, 087) and third-highest yards per function 13.1) versus tight ends in the NFL this routine period. Jacksonville additionally gives up the fifth-most backyards after catch per function to tight ends, a Kelce statistics/Jaguars safeguarding tight ends in 2022
Travis KelceJaguars vs. Tight EndsRec110 * 83Rec Yards1, 338 * 1 https://www.brownssportsshop.com, 087 ** Yards/Rec12.113.1 ** Rec TD12 * 7 * Most in NFL amongst limited ends ** Third-most in NFL vs. tight ends Kelce additionally pertains to play when the lights shine the brightest given that he has six straight playoff video games with 90 or more receiving backyards longest streak in postseason history). The 33-year-old only demands 99 more getting yards to pass Rob Gronkowski for the most playoff receiving lawns by a limited end 1, 389) and for the third-most total in the playoffs perpetuity. Mahomes linked the document for the majority of passing touchdowns to his limited ends and running backs 28 ), which was established by Hall of Famer Y.A. Tittle in 1963. If the Jaguars can keep Kelce down and out of the end zone, the opportunity of an upset ends up being a lot more realistic as he's still functioning to develop chemistry with a fresh group of large receivers. 3. Lawrence makes the most of the Chiefs' porous secondaryThe Jacksonville Jaguars' 27-point resurgence versus the Los Angeles Chargers, the third-largest in NFL playoff history, really did not take place by crash. A great deal of things needed to go the Jaguars' method, including Lawrence making the in-game change from Zach Wilson to Mahomes, which he did by tossing goals on four straight drives after the first six drives finished with 4 interceptions and two punts. Lawrence made history, coming to be the second player all time to throw 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in a playoff game. He signed up with retired Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger as the only quarterbacks to do so. One trick distinction in between the performances: Roethlisberger lost his video game 48-37 versus the Cleveland Browns in the 2020 AFC wild in playoff debut vs. Chargers 
StartedFinishedComp/Att5/1823/ 29Pass Yards35253TD-INT0-44-0Passer Rating0.0142.6 Thankfully for Lawrence, his degree of trouble will lower in the local round. The Chiefs additional enabled the most passing touchdowns 33) in the organization this routine season and the second-highest red zone goal rate 67.3%), in advance of only the Indianapolis Colts 67.9%). Chiefs defense by the numbers this season
ChiefsNFL RankOpp Pass TD33LastOpp Passer Rating95.327 thOpp Red Zone TD Pct67.331 stHis best time to strike would be when Kansas City protective organizer Steve Spagnuolo dials up the blitz. The two-time Super Bowl-winning protective play-caller is notorious for his love of the strike, but the Chiefs strike at the 14th-lowest rate in the league due to the fact that they enable the sixth-highest passer ranking 104.4) when blitzing. Lawrence has grown when pressured this way in 2022, tossing 11 goals against the strike in the normal period, tied with Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen for the fifth-most in the NFL. His 107.8 passer in strike scenarios is additionally among the very best in the organization, placed seventh in the NFL. Striking Christian Kirk was Lawrence's solution the last time these 2 groups played in Week 10. He must factor right into the video game plan heavily once more. Passing vs. blitz this season
Trevor LawrenceChiefs DefenseTD-INT11-313-2Pass Yards/Att8.17.2 Passer Rating107.8104.4 The Chiefs pass defense is beatable, yet in order for that to happen, Lawrence must not commit the same mistakes he carried out in the first piece of recently's game against the Chargers. If he plays a clean video game, Jacksonville will certainly have a chance. .

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